Tropical Storm Rafael Threat Assessment

November 5, 2024 | TLP:CLEAR 

Healthcare Ready is MONITORING for this event. We are monitoring potential concerns for supply chain disruptions and impacts on healthcare services on our Alert Hub.

Contents

• Situation Overview
• Potential Impacts to Healthcare
• Potential Impacts to Supply Chain

Situation Overview

• As of November 5, Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to intensify into a hurricane as it is projected to move northwest past Jamaica, across Cuba, and then into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday morning.
• While there are uncertainties with the projection of the storm’s path, the current cone path of Rafael could impact several states along the gulf coastline – potentially Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas. Heavy rainfall can be expected later this week along the Gulf Coast and southeast states.
  • While the current projected path of the storm could impact New Orleans, the storm could potentially weaken due to dry air and water temperatures in the northern Gulf. We will be monitoring the storm closely over the next few days.
• Additionally, tropical storm conditions can be expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys by Wednesday.

Potential Impacts to Healthcare

• Gulf coast and southeast states are still recovering after Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton generated record rainfall and sustained significant damage across the states. Depending on the projected path and further strengthening of Rafael, some of the same regions could be impacted even further by heavy rainfall and flooding.
• Based on the HHS emPOWER Map, which displays the total number of at-risk electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries:
  • Louisiana has over 900,000 Medicare beneficiaries – with 44,561 at-risk beneficiaries.
  • Mississippi has over 600,000 Medicare beneficiaries – with 38,822 at-risk beneficiaries.
  • Alabama has over 1.1 million Medicare beneficiaries – with 58,221 at-risk beneficiaries.
  • Texas has over 4.7 million Medicare beneficiaries – with 206,823 at risk beneficiaries.

Potential Impacts to Supply Chain

• Texas accounts for 4.4% of IV solution manufacturing facilities in the US. Within that, ICU Medical, one of the largest IV solutions manufacturers in the US, has a manufacturing facility in Austin, TX, which is typically a low-risk area for natural disasters however if Rafael’s cone path continues to shift northwest towards the Texas coastline, it could move inland and bring heavy rain and flash flood potential.
  • While we’re certain there are preparedness efforts in place in the event Rafael could impact Texas significantly, any disruptions to an already fragile IV solutions supply chain could further exacerbate the shortage.

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