Tropical Storm Arthur

Risk Assessment

June 17, 2026  /  TLP:CLEAR

Contents

• Situation Overview
• Impacts on Healthcare
• Impacts on Supply Chain

Situation Overview

The first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season, Tropical Storm Arthur, has formed along the southern coast of Texas. Due to strong wind shears caused by El Nino, this tropical storm is not expected to gain a lot of strength in the Gulf and will likely move across southeast Texas by Wednesday night and into Louisiana by Thursday morning. The greatest impacts will likely be seen from heavy rainfall and flooding.

Texas Governor Greg Abbott issued a disaster declaration for 101 Texas counties ahead of Tropical Storm Arthur. The Texas Division of Emergency Management (TDEM) has been activated to provide additional state emergency response resources.

Impacts on Healthcare

Vulnerable Populations and Communities

• Texas has the second highest rate, over 196,000, of Medicare beneficiaries that rely on certain essential health care services and electricity-dependent DME and devices. Louisiana has over 43,000 Medicare beneficiaries that rely on the same services, equipment, and devices. With Tropical Storm Arthur bringing wind, heavy rain, and flooding, these at-risk beneficiaries are extremely vulnerable to prolonged power outages depending on how severe the impacts are.
• Several coastal and southeastern counties in Texas are rural, have high poverty rates, and have limited healthcare infrastructure. With some communities located far from major highways or population centers, it can make access to healthcare and other services more difficult. These communities are most at-risk from tropical storm impacts due to limited resources and should be prioritized during response efforts.

Flood Risk

• Based on the Flood Risk Map from Healthcare Ready’s Community Disaster Resilience Tool (CDRT), we can see that the coastal and southeastern counties across Texas have an elevated flood hazard likelihood. The scale reaches a maximum of 60% because this represents the highest value for any individual county in Texas. The deep red counties indicate that 60% of their geographic area faces elevated flood risk. The scale progresses from minimum values (0% of county area) shown in yellow, to maximum values (60% of county area) displayed in red.

• Additionally, we can see that coastal and central counties across Louisiana have an elevated flood hazard likelihood. The scale reaches a maximum of 96% because this represents the highest value for any individual county in Louisiana. The deep red counties indicate that 96% of their geographic area faces elevated flood risk. This scale progresses from minimum values (0% of county area) shown in yellow, to maximum values (96% of the county area) in red.

Power Outages

• There have been no major power outages recorded on the United States Power Outage Map however as Tropical Storm Arthur moves from the Gulf coast through Texas and Louisiana, we can expect to see the site updated with increasing power outages.

Evacuations

• No mandatory evacuations are in place for Texas or Louisiana.

Emergency Prescription Refills

• The Texas Pharmacy Act allows a pharmacist to dispense up to a 30-day supply of a prescription, other than a Schedule II controlled substance, in the event of a disaster declaration.

Impacts to Supply Chain

• Texas has 12 major seaports which cumulatively handle about 20% of the U.S. port tonnage. Shutdowns, pauses, or impacts to the Texas ports along the coastline could cause some supply chain disruptions.
• The nation’s largest oil refineries are along the Gulf coast in Texas so any disruptions from Tropical Storm Arthur could exacerbate impacts already seen on the oil market.
• Road closures can be expected due to heavy rainfall and flooding which can hinder the movement of supplies and services.
  • Find up-to-date information on road conditions for Texas and Louisiana. 

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