As of Tuesday, September 10, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to gain strength (projected Cat 2 hurricane) in the Gulf of Mexico and projected to make landfall along the Louisiana coastline on Wednesday afternoon. It is expected to become a hurricane later today.
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Tropical Storm Francine

Threat Assessment 

September 10, 2024 | TLP:CLEAR 

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Healthcare Ready is MONITORING for this event. We are monitoring potential concerns for supply chain disruptions and impacts on healthcare services on our Alert Hub.

    Contents

    • Situation Overview and Key Updates
    • Potential Impacts to Health Care
    • Potential Impacts to Supply Chain

    Situation Overview and Key Updates

    • Situation Overview
      • As of Tuesday, September 10, Tropical Storm Francine is expected to gain strength (projected Cat 2 hurricane) in the Gulf of Mexico and projected to make landfall along the Louisiana coastline on Wednesday afternoon. It is expected to become a hurricane later today.
        • Although there is a risk of life-threatening storm surges and a high likelihood of flooding, the situation is not expected to be severe, as Francine is anticipated to move quickly through the states and not stall over the region.
      • Francine is projected to continue tracking north after it makes landfall along the Louisiana coast and move quickly through Mississippi, Arkansas, and into Tennessee.
    • Key Updates
      • On September 9, Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry declared a state of emergency. This ensures state resources are readily available to respond to Francine.
        • Additionally, on September 10, Governor Landry signed Executive Order JML 24-143 which allows licensed nursing facilities to temporarily exceed its bed capacity due to Francine.
      • On September 10, Mississippi’s Emergency Management Agency listed sandbag distribution locations in the following counties: Forrest County, Hancock County, Harrison County, Jackson County, Lamar County, and Pearl River County.
      • On September 9, the Texas State Emergency Operations Center was activated at Level II (escalated response conditions).

    Potential Impacts to Health Care

    • The table and heatmap below provides a snapshot of the dialysis centers, hospitals, and pharmacies in Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Texas’ projected affected counties.
    snapshot facilities
    heat map
    • The flood likelihood map below shows the low, medium, and high flood potential percentages within the potential impacted counties in Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Tennessee, and Texas.
    flood map
    • In the flood likelihood map above, the counties with the highest flood potential (above 80%) are labeled in dark red:
      • Louisiana: Cameron Parish, Vermilion Parish, St. Mary Parish, St. Martin Parish, Jefferson Parish, St. Bernard Parish
      • Mississippi: Issaquena County, Sharkey County
      • Tennessee: Lake County
        • To view the full flood likelihood map, please visit Healthcare Ready’s Community Disaster Resilience Tool (CDRT).
    • Based on the HHS emPOWER Map, which displays the total number of at-risk electricity-dependent Medicare beneficiaries:
      • Louisiana has over 920,000 Medicare beneficiaries – with 44,866 at-risk beneficiaries.
      • Texas has over 4.6 million Medicare beneficiaries – with 208,756 at-risk beneficiaries.
      • Mississippi has over 630,000 Medicare beneficiaries – with 38,845 at-risk beneficiaries.
      • Arkansas has over 660,000 Medicare beneficiaries – with 46,535 at-risk beneficiaries.
      • Tennessee has over 1.4 million Medicare beneficiaries – with 92,141 at-risk beneficiaries.
        • At-risk beneficiaries are people that rely on certain essential health care services and electricity-dependent durable medical equipment, so it’ll be important to monitor Francine in the event of power outages. Individuals and health care services should prepare adequately for those instances.
    • Additionally, arthritis patients may experience flare ups due to atmospheric changes. The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) show an elevated population suffering from arthritis in both Louisiana and Mississippi.
    • Evacuations and Shelter in Louisiana
      • As of September 10, Lafourche Parish announced a mandatory evacuation for people living in FEMA trailers and state-provided Ida shelters. The Lockport Community Center has been opened as a temporary shelter.
      • As of September 10, Iberia Parish announced a voluntary evacuation for residents south of US Highway 90.
      • On September 9, Terrebonne Parish announced a mandatory evacuation for all areas south of the levee system.
      • On September 9, Jefferson Parish plans to issue a mandatory evacuation for residents living outside the federal levee protection system (Crown Point, Jean Lafitte, Barateria, Lower Lafitte, and Grand Isle).
      • On September 9, Plaquemines Parish announced a mandatory evacuation for residents in Lake Hermitage, Happy Jack, Myrtle Grove, Tidewater Road, Venice, White Ditch, Woodpark, and Grand Bayou.
        • Additionally, both Jefferson Parish and Plaquemines Parish have temporary shelters open. The Terrytown Playground and Municipal Auditorium are open in Jefferson Parish. The PPG Multipurpose Center is open in Plaquemines Parish.

    Potential Impacts to Supply Chain

    • The Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development (DOTD) released an Emergency Order including limited exemptions for the transportation industry assisting in emergency preparedness.
      • Additionally, Louisiana State Police and the Department of Public Safety declared that a regional emergency exists which justifies certain exemptions for carriers providing direct assistance to disaster relief efforts.
    • As of September 10, energy facilities along the Gulf Coast are scaling back operations and evacuating production sites due to Tropical Storm Francine.
      • Offshore production, accounting for 15% of the US crude oil output, could see impacts due to Francine.
    • In Texas, based on the US Coast Guard port status page, there have been port closures issued for Harlingen Port, Port Isabel, Port Mansfield, and Port of Brownsville in Texas due to Tropical Storm Francine. Calhoun Port Authority, Port of Corpus Christi, Port of Palacios, and Port of Victoria are open with restrictions.
      • Port Arthur status information can be found here – all open with restrictions as well.
    • In Louisiana, based on the US Coast Guard port status page, the New Orleans ports are open with restrictions.
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